投资分析与管理 英文版 第5版【2025|PDF|Epub|mobi|kindle电子书版本百度云盘下载】

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Contents1

Part1

1 The Investment Background2

Chapter 14

The Investment Setting4

WHAT IS AN INVESTMENT?4

INVESTMENT DEFINED5

MEASURING RETURN AND RISK6

MEASURING HISTORICAL RATES OF RETURN6

COMPUTING MEAN HISORICAL RETURNS8

CALCUATING EXPECTED RATES OF RETURN11

MEASURING THE RISK OF EXPECTED RATES OF RETURN14

RISK MEASURES FOR HISTORICAL RETURNS15

DETERMINING REQUIRED RATES OF RETURN16

THE REAL RISK-FREE RATE17

FACTORS INFLUENCING THE NOMINAL RISK-FREE RATE17

RISK PREMIUM20

RISK PREMIUM AND PROTFOLIO THEORY22

FUNDAMENTAL RISK VERSUS SYSTEMATIC RISK23

SUMMARY OF REQUIRED RATE OF RETURN23

RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN RISK AND RETURN24

CHANGES IN THE SLOPE OF THE SML25

CHANGES IN CAPITAL MARKET CONDITIONSOR EXPECTED INFLATION27

SUMMARP OF CHANGES IN THE REQUIRED RATE OF RETURN27

OUTLINE OF THE BOOK28

Chapter l APPENDIX28

Computation of Variance and Standard Deviation33

asset allocation37

INDIVIDUAL INVESTOR LIFE CYCLE37

Chapter 237

PRE-INVESTMENT NEEDS38

LIFE CYCLE INVESTMENTSTRATEGIES38

LIFE CYCLE INVESTMENT GOLALS40

THE PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT PROCESS40

THE NEED FOR A POLICY STATEMENT41

UNDERSTAND AND ARTICULATE INVESTOR GOALS41

PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE STANDARDS42

INPUT TO THE POLICY STATEMENT43

INVESTMENT OBJECTIVES43

INVESTMENT CONSTRAINTS46

MUTUAL FUNDS51

OBJECTIVES AND CONSTRAINTS OF INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS51

PENSION FUNDS51

CONSTRUCTING THE POLICY STATEMENT51

ENDOWMENT FUNDS53

INSURANCE COMPANIES53

BANKS54

INSTUTIONAL INVESTOR SUMMARY55

THE IMPORTANCE OF ASSET ALLOCATION55

REAL INVESTMENT RETURNS AFTER TAXES AND COSTS56

RETURNS AND RISKS OF DIFFERNT ASSET CLASSES57

ASSET ALLOCATION SUMMARY61

ASSET ALLOCATION AND CULTURAL DIFFERENCES61

Chapter 366

Selecting Investments in a global Market66

THE CASE FOR GLOBAL INVESTMENTS67

RELATIVE SIZE OF U.S. FNANCIAL MARKETS68

RATES OF RETURN ON U.S. AND FOWGN SECURITIES69

INDIVIDUAL COUNTRY RISK AND RETURN71

RISK OF COMBINED COUNTRY INVESTMENTS71

GLOBAL INVESTMENT CHOICES77

FIXED-INCOME INVESTMENTS78

EQUITY INSTRUMENTS82

SPECLAL EQUITY INSTRUMENTS：OPTIONS84

FUTURES CONTRACTS84

INVESTMENT COMPANIES85

REAL ESTATE86

LPW-LIQUIDITY INVESTMENTS87

HISTORICAL RISK/RETURNS ON ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS89

STOCKS, BONDS, AND T-BILLS89

WORLD PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE91

ART AND ANTIQUES94

REAL ESTATE95

Chapter 3 APPENDIX95

JENSE PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE MEASURE1000

APPLICATION OF PORTF0LIO PERFORMANCE MEASURES1002

COMPONENTS OF INVESTMENT PERFORMANCE1006

PERFORMANCE ATTRIBUTION ANALYSIS1010

ASSET CLASS ATTRIBUTION ANALYSIS：AN EXAMPLE1011

PERFORMANCE ATTRIBUTION EXTENSIONS1013

MEASURING MARKET TIMING SKILLS1015

FACTORS tw AFFECT USE OF PERFORMANCE MEASURES1016

BENCHMARK ERRORS AND GLOBAL INVESTING1017

A DEMONSTRATION OF THE GLOBAL BENCHMARK PROBLEM1018

IMPLICATIONS OF BENCHMARK PROBLEMS RELIABILITY OF PERFORMANCE MEASURES1019

Covariance and Correlation102

RELIABILITY OF PERFORMANCE MEASURES1021

EVALUATION OF BOND PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE1021

A BOND MARKET LINE1021

DECOMPOSING PORTFOLIO RETURNS1024

ANALYZING SOURCES OF RETURN1026

REQUIRED CHARACTERISTICS OF BENCHAMARKS1028

CONSISTENCY OF PERFORMANCE1028

APPENDIX A1036

How tO Become a Chart fred Financial Analyst1036

APPENDIX B1039

Code Of Ethics and Standards Of Professional Conduct1039

APPENDIX C1041

Interest Tables1041

APPENDIX D1047

Standard Normal Probabilities1047

Glossary1049

Organization and functioning of Securities Markets105

Chapter 4105

WHAT IS A MARKET?106

CHARACTERISTICS OF A GOOD MARKET106

Name/ComPany Index1069

ORGANIZAION OF THE SECURITIES MARKET107

Subject Index1074

PRIMARY CAPITAL MARKETS108

GOVERNMENT BOND ISSUES108

MUNICIPAL BOND ISSUES108

CORPORATE BOND AND STOCK ISSUES109

PRIVATE PLACEMENTS AND RULE 144A111

SECONDARY FINANCIAL MARKETS111

WHY SECONDARY MARKETS ARE IMPORTANT111

SECONDARY BOND MARKETS112

FINANCIAL FUTURES113

SECONARY EQUITY MARKETS113

REGIONAL EXCHANGES AND THE OVER-THE-COUNTER MARKET120

DETAILED ANALYSIS OF EXCHANGE MARKETS125

EXCHNGE MEMBERSHIP125

TYPES OF ORDERS126

EXCHANGE MARKET MAKERS131

CHANGES IN THE SECURITIES MARKETS134

EVIDENCE AND EFFECT OF INSTITUTIONALIZATION134

NEGOTIATED COMMISSION RATES135

THE IMPACT OF BLOCK TRADES136

INSTITUTIONS AND STOCK PRICE VOLATILITY137

NATIONAL MARKET SYSTEM（NMS）137

NEW TRADING SYSTEMS140

GLOBAL MARKET CHANGES141

FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS143

Chapter 4 APPENDIX148

Characteristics of Developed and Developing Markets around the WOrld148

Security-market Indicator series151

Chapter 5151

USES OF SECURITY-MARKET INDEXES152

DIFFERENTIATING FACTORS IN CONSTRUCTING MARKET INDEXES153

THE SAMPLE153

WEIGHTING SAMPLE MEMBERS153

COMPUTAIONAL PROCEDURE153

STOCK-MARKET INDICATOR SERIES153

PRICE-WEIGHTED SERIES153

VALUE-WEGHTED SERIES156

UNWEIGHTED PRICE INDICATOR SERIES157

GLOBAL EQUITY INDEXES160

BOND-MARKET INDICATOR SERIES165

INVESTMENT-GRADE BOND INDEXES165

COMPOSITE STOCK-BOND INDEXES167

GLOBAL GOVERNMENT BOND MARKET INDEXES167

HIGH-YIELD BOND INDEXES167

MERRILL LYNCH-WILSHIRE U.S. CAPIAL MARKETS INDES（ML-WCMI）168

BRINSON PARTNERS GLOBAL SECURITY MARKET INDEX （GSMI）168

COMPARISON OF INDEXES OVER TIME169

CORRELATIONS AMONG MON THLY EQUITY PRICE CHANGES169

CORRELATIONS AMONG MONTHLY BOND INDEXES169

ANNUAL STOCK PRICE CHANGES171

ANNUAL BOND RATES OF RETURN171

Chapter 5 APPENDIX Foreign Stock-Market Indexes177

Chapter 6178

Sources of Information on global Investments178

AGGREGATE ECONOMIC ANALYSIS179

U.S. GOVERNMENT SOURCES179

BANK PUBLICAUIBS180

NON-U.S. ECONOMIC DATA181

GOVERNMENT PUBLICATIONS182

AGGREGATE SECURITY-MARKET ANALYSIS182

COMMERIAL PUBLICATIONS183

BROKERAGE FIRM REPORTS186

INDUSTRY ANALYSIS188

INDVSTRY PUBLICATIONS188

INDUSTRY MAGAZINES188

INDIVIDUAL STOCK AND BOND ANALYSIS190

COMPANY-GANERATED INFORMATION190

COMMERCIAL PUBLICATIONS191

INVESTMENT MAGAZINES194

BROKERAGE FIRM REPORTS194

REQYURED INFORMATION197

OBTAINING INFORMATION ON BONDS197

SOURCES OF lNFORMATION ON MUTUAL FUNDS198

SOVRCES OF BOND QVOTES198

ACADEMIC JOURNALS200

THEORETICAL AND EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS200

DATA BANKS202

COMPUTERIZED DATA SOURCES202

ONLINE DATABASES203

2 developments in Investment Theory206

Efficient Capital Markets208

Chapter 7208

WHY SHOULD CAPITAL MARKETS BEEFFICIENT?209

ALTERNATIVE EFFICIENT MARKET HYPOTHESES210

EXPECTED RETURN OR FAIR GAME MODEL210

SEMISTRONG-FORM EFFICIENT MARKET HYPOTHESIS211

WEAK-FORM EFFICIENT MARKET HYPOTHESIS211

Weak-Form HYPOTHESIS：IESTS AND RESULTS212

TESTS AND RESULTS OF ALTERNATIVE EFFICIENT MARKET HYPOTHESIS212

STRONG-FORM EFFICIENT MARKET HYPOTHESIS212

SEMISTRONG-FORM HYPOTHESIS：TESTS AND RESULTS215

STRONG-FORM HYPOTHESIS：TESTS AND RESULTS234

EFFICIENT MARKETS AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS241

IMPLICATIONS OF EFFICIENT CAPITAL MARKETS241

EFFICIENT MARKETS AND FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS242

EFFICIENT MARKETS AND PORFOLIO MANAGEMENT244

EFFICIENCY IN EUROPEAN EQUITY MARKETS246

MOVEMENTS ALONG THE SML25

Chapter 8251

An introduction to Portfolio Management251

SOME BACKGROUND ASSUMPTIONS252

RISK AVERSION252

DEFINITION OF RISK253

MARKOWITZ PORTFOLIO THEORY253

ALTERNATIVE MEASURES OF RISK253

EXPECTED RATES OF RETURN254

VARIANCE（STANDATD DEVIATION）OF RETURNS FOR AN INDIVIDUAL INVESTMKENT254

VARIANCE（STANDARD DEVIATION） OF RETURNS FOR A PIPTFOLIO255

STANDARD DEVIATION OF A PORTFOLIO261

A THREE-ASSET PORTFILIO268

ESTIMATION ISSUES269

THE EFFICIENT FRONTIER AND INVESTOR UTILITY270

THE EFFICIENT FRONTIER270

ChaPter 8 APPENDIXES275

Have Equal Variance275

Variance When Correlation Equals-1．00276

Chapter 9277

An Introduction to Asset Pricing Models277

CAPITAL MARKET THEORY：AN OVERVIEW278

BACKGROUND FOR CAPITAL MARKET THEORY278

RISK-FRE ASSET280

THE MARKET PORTFOLIO283

THE CAPITAL ASSET PRICING MODEL:EXPECTED RETURN AND RISK287

THE SECURITY MARKET LINE（SML）288

ARBITRAGE PRICING THEORY （ART）297

EMPIRICAL TESTS OF THE APT300

Extensions and Testing of Asset pricing Theories305

Chapter 10305

RELAXING THE ASSUMPTIONS305

DIFFERENTIAL BORROW AND LENDING RATES306

ZERO-BETA MODEL307

TRANSACTIONS COSTS308

HETEROGENEOUS EXPECTATIONS AND PLANNING PERIODS309

TAXES309

EMPIRICAL TESTS OF THE CAPM310

STABILITY OF BETA310

COMPARABILITY OF PUBLISHED ESTIMATES OF BETA311

RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN SYSTEMATIC RISK AND RETURN312

EFFECT OF SKEWNESS ON THE RELATIONSHIP314

EFFECT OF SIXE，PE，AND LEVERAGE314

EFFECT OF BOOK-TO-MARKET VALVE:THE FAMA-FRENCH STUDY315

SUMMARY OF CAPM RISK-RETURN EMPIRICAL RESULTS315

THE MARKET PORTFOUO: THEORY VERSUS PRACTICE317

ARBITRAGE PRICING THEORY （APT）322

EMPIRICAL TESTS OF THE APT325

ROLL-ROSS STUDY325

EXTENSIONS OF THE ROLL-ROSS TESTS326

THE APT AND ANOMALIES327

THE SHANKEN CHALLENGE TO TESTABILITY OF THE ATP329

Chapter 11333

An Introduction to Derivative Markets and Securities333

OVERVIEW OF DERIVATIVE MARKETS334

THE LANGUAGE AND STRUCTURE OF FORWATD AND FUTUTES MARKETS334

THE LANGUAGE AND STRUCTURE OF OPTION MARKETS336

INVESTING WITH DERIVATIVE SECURITIES338

THE BASIC NATUTE OF DERIVATIVE INVESTING338

BASIC PAYOFF DIAGRAMS FOR FORWARD CONTRACTS340

BASIC PAYOFF DIAGRAMS FOR CALL AND PUT OPTIONS341

OPTION PAYOFF DIAGRAMS：AN EXAMPLE344

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEN FORWARD AND OPTION CONTRACTS347

PUT-CALL-SPOT PARITY347

PUT-CALL PARITY：AN EXAMPLE349

CREATING SYNTHETIC SECURTITES USING PUT-CALL PARITY350

ADJUSTING PUT-CALL-CALL-SPOT PATITY FOR DIVIDENDS351

PUT-CALL-FORWARD PARITY352

APPLICATIONS OF DERIVATIVES IN PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT354

RESRTUCTURING ASSET PORTFOLIOS WITH FORWARD CONTRACTS354

PROTECTING PORTFOLIO VALUE WITH PUT OPTIONS356

ALTERING PORTFOLIO PAYOFFS WITH CALL OPTIONS360

STATEMENT OF CASH FLOWS370

3 Valuation principles and Practice372

Analysis of Financial Statements374

MAJOR FINANCIAL STATEMENTS374

Chapter 12374

GENERALLY ACCEPTED ACCOUNTING PRINCIPLES375

BALANC SHEET375

INCOME STATEMENT375

ALTERNATIVE MEASURES OF CASH FLOW380

PURPOSE OF FINANCIAL STATEMENT ANALYSIS381

ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL RATIOS381

IMPORTANCE OF RELATIVE FINANCIAL RATIOS381

COMPUTATION OF FINANCIAL RATIOS383

COMMON SIXE STATEMENTS383

EVALUATING INTERNAL LIQUIDITY383

INTERNAL LIQUIDITY RATIOS383

EVALUATING OPERATING PERFORMANCE388

OPERATING EFFICIENCY RATIOS389

OPERATING PROFITABILITY RATIOS390

RISK ANALYSIS396

BUSINESS RISK398

FINANCLAL RISK399

ANALYSIS OF GROWTH POTENTIAL406

IMPORTANCE OF GROWTH ANALYSIS406

DETERMINANTS OF GROWTH406

EXTERNAL MARKET LIQUIDITY408

MARKET LIQUIDITY DEFINED408

DETERMINANTS OF MARKET LIQUIDITY408

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF RATIOS409

INTERNAL LIQUIDITY409

OPERATING PERFORMANCE409

FINANCIAL RISK409

ACCOUNTING STATEMENT FORMAT DIFFERENCES411

GROWTH ANALYSIS411

DIFFERENCES IN ACCOUNTING PRINCIPLES411

ANALYSIS OF NON-U.S. FINANCIAL STATEMENTS411

INTERNATIONAL RATIO ANALYSIS412

THE QUALITY OF FINANCIAL STATEMENTS417

BALANCE SHEET417

INCOME STATEMENT418

THE VALUE OF FINANCIAL STATEMENT ANALYSIS418

USES OF FINANCIAL RATIOS418

STOCK VALUATION MODELS419

FINANCIAL RATIOS AND SYSTEMATIC RISK419

FIANCIAL RATIOS AND BOND RATINGS420

LIMITATIONS OF FINANCIAL RATIOS421

FINANCIAL RATIOS AND TNSOLVENCY（BANKRUPTCY）421

An Introduction to Security Valuation429

Chapter 13429

AN OVERVIEW OF THE VALUATION PROCESS430

GENERAL ECONOMIC INFLUENCES431

WHY A THREE-STEP VALUATION PROCESS?431

INDUSTRY INFLUENCES432

COMPANY ANALYSIS433

DOES THE THREE-STEP PROCESS WORK?433

THEORY OF VALUATION434

STREAM OF EXPECTED RETURNS434

REQUIRED RATE OF RETURN435

INVESTMENT DECISION PROCESS：A COMPARISON OF ESTIMATED VALUES AND MARKET PRICES435

VALUATION OF ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS436

VALUATION OF BONADS436

VALUATION OF PREFERRED STOCK437

VALUATION OF COMMON STOCK438

INFINITE PERIOD DDM AND GROWTH COMPANIES443

VALUATION WITH TEMPORARY SUPERNOFMAL GROWTH443

EARNINGS MULTIPLIER MODEL445

REQUIRED RATE OF RETURN（K）447

OF DIVIDENDS447

ESTIMATING THE REQUIRED RETURN FOR FOREIGN SECURTIES449

EXPECTED GROWTH RATE OF DIVIDENDS453

ESTIMATING DIVIDEND GROWTH FOR FOREIGN STOCKS455

Derivation Of Constant Growth Dividend Discount Model（DDM）458

Chapter 13 APPENDIX458

Allocation Decision460

Chapter 14460

CYCLICAL INDICATOR APPROACH TO461

ECONOMIC ACTIVITY AND SECURITY MARKETS461

FORECASTING THE ECONOMY462

CYCLIAL INDICATOR CATEGORIES463

ANALYTICAL MAESURES OF PERFORMANCE466

LIMITIONS OF THE CYCLCAL INDICATOR APPROACH466

LEADING INDICTORS AND STOCK PRICES467

OTHER LEADING INDICATOR SERIES467

MONEY SUPPLY AND THE ECONOMY470

MONETARY VARIABLES， THE ECONOMY，AND STOCK PRICES470

MONEY SUPPLY AND STOCK PRICES471

OTHER ECONOMIC VARIABLES AND STOCK PRICES472

INFLATION，I NTEREST RATES，AND SECURITY PRICES473

SUMMARY OF MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS476

ANALYSIS OF WORLD SECURITY MARKETS477

INFLATION AND EXCHANGE RATES477

CORRELATIONS AMONG RETURNS479

INDIVIDUAL COUNTRY STOCK PRICE CHANGES480

INDIVIDUAL COUNTRY ANALYSIS480

WORLD ASSET ALLOCATION482

Part 4 Analysis and Management of Bonds488

Chapter 15490

Bond Fundamentals490

BASIC FEATURES OF A BOND490

BOND CHARACTERISTICS491

RATES OF RETURN ON BONDS493

THE GLOBAL BOND-MARKET STRUCTURE494

PARTICIPATING ISSUERS495

PARTICIPATING INVESTORS497

BOND RATINGS497

ALTERNATIVE BOND ISSUES500

DOMESTIC GOVERNMENT BONDS500

GOVERNMENT AGENCUY ISSUES502

MUNICIPAL BONDS505

CORPORATE BONDS507

INTERNATIONAL BONDS516

INETRPRETING BOND QUOTES517

OBTAINING INFORMATION ON BOND PRICES517

Chapter 16525

The Analysis and Valuation of Bonds525

THE FUNDAMENTALS OF BOND VALUATION526

THE PRESENT VALUE MODEL526

THE YIELD MODEL528

COMPUTING BOND YIELDS529

NOMONAL YIELD530

CURRENT YIELD530

PROMISE YIELD TO MATURITY530

PROMISED YIELD TO CALL534

REALIZED（HORIZON）YIELD535

CALCULATING FUTURE BOND PRICES536

REALIZED（HORIZON）YIELD WITH DIFFRENTIAL538

REINVESTMNT RATES538

PRICE AND YIELD DETERMINATION NONINTEREST DATES540

YIELD ADJUSTMENTS FOR TAX-EXEMPT BONDS540

BOND YIELD BOOK541

BOND VALUATION USING SPOT RATES541

WHAT DETERMINES INTEREST RATES?543

FORECASTING INTEREST RATES544

FUNDAMENTAL DETERMINANTS OF INTEREST RATES545

TERM STRUCTURS OF INTRET RATES548

CALCULATING FORWARD RATES FROM THE SPOT-RATE CURVE554

TERM-STRUCTURE THEORIES556

YIELD SPREADS560

WHAT DETERMINES THE PRICE VOLATILITY FOR BONDS?561

TRADING STRATEGIES564

DURATION MEASURES565

MODIFIED DURATION AND BOND PRICE VOLATILITY568

BOND CONVEXITY569

DURATION AND CONVEXITY FOR CALLABLE BONDS576

LIMITATIONS OF MACAULAY AND MODIFIED DURATION578

Chapter 17591

Bond portfolio Management Strategies591

ALTERNATIVE BOND PORTFOLIO STRATEGIES591

PASSIVE MANAGEMENT STRTEGIES592

ACTVE MANAGEMENT STRATEGIS593

A GLOBAL FIXED-INCOME INVESTMENT STRATEGY605

MATCHED-FUNDING IECHNIQUES607

CONTINGENT PORTFOLIO STRATEGIES616

IMPLICATIONS OF CAPITAL MARKET THEORY AND THE EMH ON BOND PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT623

BONDS AND TOTAL PORTFOLIO THEORY623

BONDS AND CAPIAL MARKET THEORY624

BOND PRICE BEHAVIOR IN A CAPM FRAMEWORK624

BOND-MARKET EFFICIENCY627

Part 5 Analysis of Common Stocks638

Chapter 18640

Stock-Market Analysis640

APPLYING THE VALUATION MODEL TO THE MARKET641

IMPORTANCE OF BOTH COMPONENTS OF VALUE642

TWO-PART VALUATION PROCEDURE642

ESTIMATING EXPECTED EARNINGS PER SHARE645

ESTIMATING SALES PER SHARE FOR A MARKET SERIES645

ESTIMATING GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT645

ALTERNATIVE ESTMATES OF CORPORATE NET PROFITS647

ESTMATING AGGREGATE OPEPATING PROFIT MARGIN648

ESTIMATING DEPRECIATION EXPEMSE652

ESTIMATING INTEREST EXPENSE652

ESTIMATING THE TAX RATE653

CALCULATING EARNINGS PER SHARE：AN EXAMPLE654

ESTIMATING THE EARNINGS MULTIPLIER FOR A STOCK-MARKET SERIES655

DETERMINANTS OF THE EARNINGS MULTIPLIER655

ESTIMATING AN EARNINGS MULTIPLIER：AN EXAMPLE665

CALCULATING AN ESTIMATE OF THE VALUE FOR THE MARKET SERIES669

CALCULATING THE EXPECTED RATE OF RETURN ON COMMON STOCKS669

ANALYSIS OF WORLD MARKETS671

INDIVIDUAL COUNTRY ANALYSIS672

Chapter 19679

Industry Analysis679

WHY DO INDUSTRY ANALYSIS?680

CROSS-SECTIONAL INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE681

INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE OVER TIME682

PERFORMANCE OF THE COMPANIES WITHIN AN INDUSTRY682

DIFFERENCES IN INDUSTRY RISK682

SUMMARY OF RESARCH ON INDUSTRY ANALYSIS683

ESTIMATING INDUSTRY RATES OF RETURN683

ESTIMATING EARNINGS PER SHARE684

FORECASTING SALES PER SHARE684

COMPETITION AND EXPECTED INDUSTRY RETLJRNS689

BASIC COMPETITIVE FORCES689

FORECASTING EARNINGS PER SHARE689

INDUSTRY PROFIT MARGIN FORECAST691

AN INDUSTRY EARNINGS ESTIMATE EXAMPLE694

ESTIMATING AN INDUSTRY EARNINGS MULTIPLIER696

MACROANAL OF AN INDUSTRY MULTIPLIER697

MICROANALYSIS OF AN INDUSTRY698

WHY THE DIFFENCE?705

ESTIMATING THE FUTURE705

GLOBAL INDUSTRY ANALYSIS706

THE EUROPEAN CHEMICAL INDUSTRY706

APPENDIX 19A711

Preparing an Industry Analysis711

Chapter 20711

ESTIMATING THE COMPANY PROFIT MARGIN712

Company Analysis and stock Selection714

GROWTH COMANIES AND GROWTH STOCKS715

ANALYSIS OF COMPANIES VERSUS THE SELECTION OF STOCK715

OTHER COMPANY-STOCK COMPARISONS716

ESTIMATING THE VALUE OF A COMPANY717

ESTIMATING COMPANY EARNINGS PER SHARE718

COMPANY SALES FORECAST718

IDENTIFYING AND SELECTING COMPETITIVESTRATEGIES721

LOW-COST STRATEGY722

DIFFERENTIATION STRATEGY722

FOCUSING A STRATEGY722

WALGREEN COMPETITIVE STRATEGIES722

THE INTERNAL PERFORMANCE723

MACROANALYSIS OF THE EARNINGS MULTIPLER726

ESTIMATING COMPANY EARNINGS MULTIPLIERS726

MICROANALYSIS OF THE EARINGS MULTIPLIER727

MAKING THE INVESTMENT DECISION732

ADDITIONAL MEASURES OF RELATIVE VALUE734

PRICE/BOOK VALVE (P/BV) RATIO735

PRICE/CASH FLOW (P/CF) RATIO738

MEASURES OF VALUE-ADDED739

ECONOMIC VALUE-ADDED(EVA)740

MARKET VALUE-ADDED(MVA)742

RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN EVA AND MVA742

THE FRANCHISE FACTOR742

GLOBAL COMPANY ANALYSIS743

EARNINGS PER SHARE ANALYSIS743

PROFITABILITY AND FINANCIAL STRENGTH744

COMMON STOCK STATISTOCS744

SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE746

INDIVIDUAL COMPANY ANALYSIS747

ANALYSIS OF GROWTH COMPANIES747

ACW RETURNS ABOVE EXPECTED RETURNS749

GROWTH COMPANY DEFINED749

GROWTH COMPANIES AND GROWTH STOCKS750

GROWTH COMPANIES AND THE DIVIDEND DISCOUNT MODEL750

ALTERNATIVE GROWTH MODELS750

No-GROWTH FIRM750

LONG-RUN GROWTH MODELS751

THE REAL WORLD754

GROWTH DURATION754

A FLEXIBLE GROWTH STOCK VALUATION MODEL758

AN EXAMPLE OF THE FLEXBLE GROWTH MODEL760

Chapter 21771

Technical Analysis771

UNDERLYING ASSUMPTIONS 0F TECHNICAL ANALYSIS772

CHALLENGES TO TECHNICAL ANALYSIS774

CHALLENGES TO TECHNICAL ANALYSIS ASSUMPTIONS774

CHALLENGES TO TECHNICAL TRADING RULES774

ADVANTAGES OF TECHNICAL ANALYSIS775

TECHNICAL TRADING RULES AND INDICATORS776

CONTRARY-OPINION RULES777

FOLLOW THE SMART MONEY781

OTHER MARKET ENVIRONMENT INDICATORS784

STOCK PRICE AND VOLUME TECHNIQUES788

TECHINCAL ANALYSIS OF FOREIGN MARKETS795

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF BOND MARKETS797

Chapter 22802

Equity Portfolio Management Strategies802

PASSIVE VERSUS ACTIVE MANAGEMENT802

AN OVERVIEW OF PASSIVE EQUITY PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES803

INDES FUND CONSTUCTION TECHNIQUES804

AN OVERVIEW OF ACTIVE EQUITY PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES805

USING FUTURES AND OPTIONS IN EQUITY PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT810

MODIFYING PORTFOLIO RISK AND RETURN：A REVIEW810

THE USE OF FUTURES IN ASSET ALLOCATION812

THE USE OF DERIVATIVES IN EQUITY PORTFOLIOS812

HEDGING PORTFOLIO INFLOWS812

THE STANDARD POOR’S 500 INDEX FUTURES CONTRACT814

HEDGING PORTFOLIO OUTFLOWS814

USING FUTURES IN PASSIVE EQUITY PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT816

USING FUTURES IN ACTIVE EQUITY PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT817

MODIFYING THE CHARACTERISTICS OF AN INTERNATIONAL EQUTY PORTFOLIO818

STRATEGIC ASSET ALLOCATION819

INTEGRATED ASSET ALLOCATION819

TACTICAL ASSET ALLOCATION819

ASSET ALLOCATON STRATEGIES819

INSURED ASSET ALLOCATION820

SELECTING AN ALLOCATION METHOD820

Chapter823

6 Derivative Security Analysis824

Part824

Forward and Futures Contracts826

AN OVERVIEW OF FORWAD AND FUTURES TRADING827

HEDGING WITH FORWARDS AND FUTRES830

HEDGING AND THE BASIS830

CALCULATING THE OPTIMAL HEDGE RATIO832

FORWARD AND FUTURES CONTRACTS：BASIC VALUATION CONCEPTS834

VALUING FORWARDS AND FUTURES834

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN SPOT AND FORWARD PRICES835

FINANCIAL FORWARDS AND FUTURES： APPLICATIONS AND STRATEGIES837

INEREST RATE FORWARDS AND FUTURES837

LONG-TERM INTREST RATE FUTURES838

SHORT-TERM INTEREST RATE FUTURES843

STOCK INDEX FUTURES849

CURRENCY ROFWARDS AND FUTURES854

APPENDIX 23A867

A Closed-Form Equation for Calculating Duration867

APPENDIX 23B868

Calculating Money Market Implied Forward Rates868

Chapter 24872

Option Contracts872

AN OVERVIEW OF OPTION MARKETS AND CONTRACTS873

OPTION MARKET CONVENTIONS873

PRICE QUOTATIONS FOR EXCHANGE-TRADED OPTIONS874

OPTION TRADING STRATEGIES880

STRADDLES，STRIPS，AND STRAPS881

STRANGLES883

SPREDS884

CHOOSER OPTIONS884

RANGE FORWARDS887

THE BASIC APPROACH889

THE FUNDAMENTALS OF OPTION VALUATION889

IMPROVING FORECAST ACCURACY891

THE BINOMIAL OPTION PRICING MODEL893

THE BLACK-SCHOLES VALUATION MODEL897

ESTIMATING VOLATILITY900

OPTION VALUATION：EXTENSIONS AND ADVANCED TOPICS902

VALUING EUROPEAN-STYLE PUT OPTIONS902

VALUING OPTIONS ON DIVIDEND-BEARING SECURITIES903

VALUING AMERICAN-STYLE OPTIONS905

OTHER EXTENSIONS OF THE BLACK-SCHOLES MODEL907

Chapter 25916

Swap Contracts，Convrertible Securities,and Other Embedded Derivative5916

OTC INTEREST RATE AGREEMENTS917

FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS917

INTEREST RATE SWAPS919

CAPS AND FLOORS925

COLLARS926

SWAP OPTIONS （“SWAPTIONS”）928

SWAP CONTRACTING EXTENSIONS931

CURRENCY SWAPS931

EQUITY INDEX-LINKED SWAPS935

COMMODITY SWAPS937

WARRANTS AND CONVERTBLE SECURITIES939

WARRANTS939

CONVERTIBLE SECURITIES941

CONVERTIBLE PREFERRED STOCK941

CONVERTIBLE BONDS942

OTHER EMBEDDED DERIVATIVES945

DUAL CURRENCY BONDS947

EQUITY INDES-LINKED NOTES948

COMMODITY-LINKED BULL AND BEAR BONDS952

SWAP-LINKED NOTES953

Part964

7 Investment Companies and Evaluating Portfolio Performance964

Chapter 26966

Investment Companies966

WHAT IS AN INVESTMENT COMPANY?967

MANAGEMENT OF INVESTMENT COMPANIES967

CLOSED-END VERSUS OPEN-END INVESTMENT COMPANIES968

CLOSED-END INVESTMENT COMPANIES968

OPEN-END INVESTMENT COMPANIES971

FUND MANAGEMENT FEES973

TYPES OF INVESTMENT COMPANIES BASED ON PORTFOLIO MAKEUP973

COMMON STOCK FUNDS973

BALANCED FUNDS973

BOND FUNDS973

BREAKDOWN BY FUND CHARACTERISTICS974

MONEY MARKET FUNDS974

PERFORMANCE OF INVESTMENT COMPANIES976

ANALYSIS OF OVERALL PERFORMANCE976

IMPACT OF FUND OBJECTIVES977

MARKET TIMING ABILITY978

CONSISTENCY OF PERFORMANCE979

WHAT PERFORMANCE STUDIES MEAN TO YOU980

SOURCES OF lNFORMATION981

GLOBAL INVESTMENT COMPANIES990

Chapter 27993

Evaluation of Portfolio Performance993

WHAT IS REQUIRED OF A PORTFOLIO MANAGER?994

COMPOSITE PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE MEASURES995

PORTFOLIO EVALUATION BEFORE 1960995

TREYNOR PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE MEASURE995

SHAPPE PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE MEASUE998